How much deforestation contributes to global warming

Deforestation and other changes in how we use land are among the biggest ways humans add greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. These activities are responsible for roughly 10% to 25% of all human-caused emissions, depending on how they are measured. At the same time, forests and natural lands normally act as an important sponge that absorbs carbon dioxide (CO₂). When they are destroyed or changed, this natural ability to take in CO₂ is lost, which makes global warming worse and its effects last for many decades or even centuries.

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Why this matters

Forests keep a huge amount of carbon stored in their trees and in the soil. But when forests are cut down, burned, or damaged, a lot of that carbon is released back into the air as CO₂. At the same time, we also lose an important natural system that normally helps absorb some of the carbon from fossil-fuel use. This creates a double problem more carbon emissions are added to the air, while the Earth’s ability to remove them is reduced. That is why changes in how we use land, like deforestation, are such a big part of the climate crisis.

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How much, exactly? (numbers and ranges)

Different studies use slightly different definitions and methods, so the numbers you see can vary.

According to the IPCC and other major reports, the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for about 13–23% of total human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. A large part of these emissions comes from deforestation and the destruction or degradation of forests.

Looking at the long-term picture since 1850, changes in land use — mainly cutting down forests — have contributed around 30% of all carbon dioxide emissions. The rest has mostly come from burning fossil fuels and making cement. This shows why land changes from the past still matter today, because they continue to affect the carbon balance of our planet.

When we focus on annual emissions, global carbon budgets show that carbon dioxide from land-use change (mostly deforestation) is around 1.0–3.0 gigatons of carbon per year. This is equal to about 3.7–11 gigatons of carbon dioxide per year, depending on the year and uncertainties in measurement. For comparison, emissions from fossil fuels and cement together are about 9–11 gigatons of carbon per year, which equals roughly 33–41 gigatons of carbon dioxide per year. This means land-use change is still a significant share of global emissions each year.

The exact percentages differ because of differences in how scientists count things, such as what qualifies as a “forest,” how soil carbon is included, and natural variations caused by events like fires or droughts. But no matter the method, all studies show the same conclusion: land use is a major source of emissions, and forests remain one of the most important tools we have for absorbing carbon and protecting the climate.

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The mechanisms – how deforestation warms the planet

Immediate CO₂ release:

When trees are cut down and burned, the carbon stored inside them is released into the air as carbon dioxide (CO₂). This happens because burning and even the natural decay of trees turn their stored carbon into CO₂. Fires used to clear land release even larger amounts of carbon in a short time, making them especially harmful for the climate.

Loss of future carbon absorption:

Living forests don’t just store carbon – they also keep absorbing CO₂ from the atmosphere year after year. When forests are removed, we not only lose the carbon already stored in them, but we also lose their ability to keep capturing more carbon in the future. This makes the total climate impact much bigger than just the one-time release from cutting or burning trees.

Carbon loss from soils:

Forest soils are also very rich in carbon. When forests are cleared for farming or other uses, this soil carbon gets released into the atmosphere. In special cases like peatlands, draining them can release extremely large amounts of carbon, because peat soils hold even more carbon than normal forest soils.

Changes to surface and local climate:

Forests are usually dark and release water into the air through a process called evapotranspiration. If forests are replaced by lighter-colored farmland or grassland, the way the land reflects sunlight (called albedo) changes, and this affects local temperatures and rainfall. In colder regions, this change can sometimes make the surface slightly cooler. But in tropical regions, removing forests almost always makes the climate warmer overall, because it destroys huge carbon stores and disrupts the water cycle.

Risks of feedback loops and tipping points:

If deforestation happens on a very large scale, it can cause serious long-term changes to regional weather. For example, cutting down too many trees can reduce rainfall, make droughts more common, and in extreme cases, even turn a forest from a carbon absorber into a carbon emitter. The Amazon rainforest is one of the biggest concerns – if too much of it is lost, it could stop working as a “carbon sink” and instead speed up global warming.

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Where most emissions come from (hotspots)

Tropical forests, such as those in the Amazon, the Congo Basin, and Southeast Asia, are the world’s largest stores of carbon in tropical regions. When these forests are cleared to make room for cattle grazing, growing soy, or planting oil palm, or when they are damaged by fires, huge amounts of carbon dioxide are released into the air. This not only adds to global warming but also harms biodiversity and disrupts rainfall patterns.

In Southeast Asia, especially in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia, draining peatlands makes the problem even worse. When peat soils are drained, the carbon stored in them for thousands of years starts to escape into the atmosphere. If fires occur in these drained areas, even more carbon is released, causing very high emissions and long-lasting damage.

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Measurement, uncertainty and why figures vary

Estimating the carbon emissions that come from deforestation is more difficult than measuring emissions from burning fossil fuels. There are several reasons for this:

Different meanings of “forest”: A forest can be described in many ways. It might mean thick, untouched primary forests, areas of young regrowth, tree plantations, or just any land with tree cover. Each of these types of forests stores very different amounts of carbon, which makes calculations tricky.

Soil and peat carbon: Forest soils, especially peatlands, hold a very large amount of carbon. But the amount varies a lot from one place to another, and many studies don’t fully include these soil carbon pools. This creates big gaps in the estimates.

Hidden or small-scale clearing: Technology like satellites has made it easier to see where forests are being cut, but it is still hard to detect small clearings or selective logging. These activities release carbon too, but they are often underestimated.

Human vs natural changes: Forests can lose carbon because of people (for example, land clearing for farming) or because of natural events (like storms or wildfires not linked to human activity). Separating the two is difficult, and this adds even more uncertainty to the numbers.

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Solutions and mitigation – how much can stopping deforestation help?

Protecting existing forests gives quick climate benefits because it stops extra carbon from being released and also keeps their ability to absorb carbon in the future.

Planting new trees and restoring damaged forests can also help capture carbon, but this process takes many years. The speed and long-term results depend on the type of trees, the soil, and how well the area is managed.

It is also very important not to drain peatlands and to repair already damaged peatlands. If peatlands are destroyed, they release a huge amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Good policies can make a big difference. For example, programs that pay countries to stop deforestation, stricter rules for industries like soy, beef, and palm oil, and giving stronger protection to indigenous communities who take care of the land have all shown positive results — but only when there is proper monitoring, enforcement, and involvement of local people.

Along with these nature-based actions, we still need to reduce fossil fuel use in a big way. Forests alone cannot solve climate change, but they are one of the cheapest and fastest tools available to reduce emissions and protect the planet.

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Deforestation and changes in how we use land create a big part of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, usually estimated to be between 10% and 25%. Forests also act as a natural system that absorbs carbon dioxide, so when we cut them down, we lose an important way to slow down the rise of CO₂ in the atmosphere. This means that stopping large-scale forest destruction and bringing damaged land back to life are very powerful actions against climate change. However, these steps alone are not enough. To keep global warming under control, we also need to reduce the use of fossil fuels quickly and on a large scale.

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